The visit of National Intelligence Organization (MIT) Chair İbrahim Kalın to the Kurdistan Region on July 1 and developments regarding the PKK’s disarmament ceremony planned in Sulaymaniyah, in the Kurdistan Region, have stirred the region. 

 

Although Kalın’s Erbil-centered contacts are mostly linked by the public to renewed claims of a peace process, these talks did not only cover this topic. Journalist Erdal Er, who follows developments in the region closely, evaluated the historic ceremony to be held by the PKK and İbrahim Kalın's visits for Mezopotamya Agency (MA).

 

Erdal Er, who follows regional developments firsthand, stated that the Kirkuk-Ceyhan oil pipeline came up during İbrahim Kalın’s meetings with Kurdistan Regional Government officials. He said, "The status of the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline, developments in Shengal and Makhmour, the structural crisis between Erbil and Baghdad, Iraq’s security policies, and rising tensions along the Israel-Iran axis were all discussed. While Turkey tries to rebuild its position both in Southern Kurdistan and Iraq in general, it also approaches the peace process file within this framework. However, almost all discussed topics are complex, involve many actors, and are not expected to be resolved in the short term. Therefore, it is too early to say an agreement has been reached or that the processes have become clear."

 

THE OIL PIPELINE

 

Emphasizing that Turkey wants to strengthen its position by mediating the tense relationship between Baghdad and Erbil, Er said: "One of the most critical topics during Kalın’s visit was the Kirkuk-Ceyhan oil pipeline. Turkey had signed a 49-year energy agreement with the Erbil administration in the past, but Baghdad did not recognize this agreement and took the case to the Paris Arbitration Court. The court ruled in favor of Baghdad, ordering Turkey to pay compensation, and the pipeline was closed. This pipeline, still closed today, is not just an economic issue; it symbolizes the deep political and administrative crisis between Baghdad and Erbil. Although Turkey wants to mediate or strengthen its position amid this crisis, it struggles to succeed due to internal political instability and contradictory foreign policy. Moreover, the recent involvement of the U.S., especially the massive energy deals signed during Masrour Barzani’s Washington visit, has created a new line of tension. This situation is not limited to energy but also reflects the Israel-Iran tension in Iraq."

 

CONSTITUTIONAL GUARANTEE

 

Highlighting the historic PKK ceremony in Sulaymaniyah, Er said: "Under the shadow of all these issues, the upcoming ceremony, expected to announce a call to end the conflict, holds critical importance. This ceremony is not only symbolic; it sends a strong message toward stopping conflict, silencing weapons, and reintroducing the peace agenda. The ceremony is considered a new phase in the process following Abdullah Öcalan’s video message on February 27. It is an important step toward ending a 50-year conflict. But if Ankara does not respond to this step, we will drift away from peace. The future of the process depends on the government’s stance. The guerrillas’ initiative alone will not bring a solution. Ankara must prepare a legal and lawful basis for these steps and take concrete actions, primarily lifting the isolation on Öcalan."

 

A HISTORIC OPPORTUNITY

 

Er stressed that this process is not limited to Turkey but also represents a historic opportunity to strengthen Kurdish unity: "The deep political polarization between Erbil and Sulaymaniyah must be overcome in this process. Öcalan’s call has the potential to soften this division. It is impossible to manage today with the language, arguments, and methods of the past. Kurds must now focus not on details but on the core issue. The ceremony is only a beginning; a long road is needed for struggle and peace. This process can only succeed with active participation."

 

ATTACKS

 

Recalling the increased drone and missile attacks on Sulaymaniyah and Erbil in recent weeks, Er warned about the possibility of the region turning into a new conflict zone. "Turkey’s military presence inside Iraq, especially in Başika, has been legitimized legally, but it caused serious debates in Iraqi public opinion. On the other hand, Iraq’s ongoing inability to establish internal peace and its foreign policy squeezed between Iran and the U.S. push the region into a fragile equation. The elections planned for November, which may be postponed, are another sign of this instability," he said. 

 

Er noted that the government needs to take steps at this stage: "The topics put on the table during Kalın’s visit and the content of the ceremony to be declared by the PKK have the potential to form the groundwork for a new process in the region. However, realizing this potential depends on the steps taken by the parties and the courage of the political will."

 

MA / Zeynep Durgut