Has Russia made concessions for Northern and Eastern Syria?

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  • 14:48 11 August 2022
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NEWS CENTER - After the meeting in Sochi, the increasing drone attacks against Northern and Eastern Syria show that Turkey has made concessions from Russia, albeit partially. Considering the preparations in the region, it turns out that the war will be more difficult in a possible attack.
After meeting with Russian Minister of State, Vilademir Putin, in Sochi on August 5, AKP President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan continued his threats against Northern and Eastern Syria during his meeting with the ambassadors who came to Ankara for the 13th Ambassadors Conference at the Çankaya Mansion. Erdogan said: "We will continue our fight against terrorism. Our decision to establish a secure 30-kilometer-deep line along our southern border remains. I hope we will unite the rings of this security belt soon by clearing the last areas where the terrorist organization is nesting in Syria."
Although Russia made statements showing the way of "reconciliation" after the meeting, Erdogan's statements and the increased drones attacks after the meeting show that, albeit partial, concessions were made from Russia. Although the statements of Putin, Reisi and Erdogan, who came together in Tehran, the capital of Iran, on July 19, reduced the possibility of an attack, the region warmed up again with threats and attacks after the visit to Russia.
It is not the first time that Russia, which is at war in Ukraine and is embargoed by most of the world, made concessions to Turkey within the scope of the project of strengthening the Assad regime and leaving the region to Assad against the declaration of autonomy of the peoples of Northern and Eastern Syria. The first of these concessions started with Turkey's attack on Afrin on January 20, 2018. Afterwards, Russia, which was a spectator to Turkey's attack on Serêkaniyê and Girê Spî on October 09, 2019, got what it wanted from Erdogan with the agreement signed in Sochi on October 22, 2019. According to the memorandum, it was decided to withdraw the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) from the border area and 30 kilometers away from Til Rifat and Manbij. For this purpose, it was decided to enter the area outside the Russian military, police and Syrian border guards operation area. On October 29, Russia announced that 34,000 SDF fighters from 68 troops had withdrawn from the operation area. With this agreement, Russia, the guarantor of non-conflict, has remained silent against the attacks on Til Rifat, Manbij, Eyn Isa and Til Temir, which are among the regions Turkey has entered until today.
The United States, the other guarantor country next to Russia, declares that Turkey's attacks on the region will disrupt the fight against ISIS and declares that it does not approve, but stays away from taking a position against a possible attack. The USA, which is a direct party in the China-Taiwan tensions in the Pacific and the Russian attacks in Ukraine, does not want to upset Turkey, with which it acts together in NATO, when it comes to the Middle East. Although Iran, one of the other actors in Syria, has declared that it will absolutely not accept the attack, it is a country with limited room for action. It is difficult for Iran, which has forces located only between Til Rifat and Aleppo, to act unless there is a threat to Aleppo. The Assad Regime, on the other hand, is not strong enough to determine a policy beyond Russia, to which they have surrendered their will, even though they have declared that they will defend the borders.
This pragmatic panorama of the Middle East shows that Turkey has a high probability of attack. Instead of solving the Kurdish question in its country, AKP-MHP, which has turned the deadlock into the survival of its power with nationalist arguments, wants to launch the attack by taking advantage of the pragmatic approaches of the sovereigns less than a year before the elections. The government finds war as the only way to remove the bottoming out economic, increasing unemployment, the lawlessness, the peaking of the usurpation of rights, and the enriching its supporters from making them visible. In this direction, it wants to use the alternative of war in the Kurdish question.
The 6-way table, which introduces and markets itself as the opposition and demands votes from the Kurds, who are the biggest of the peoples of Northern and Eastern Syria, but they can be nationalist for supporting the war, which is the AKP-MHP's search for power. Despite Turkey's 308 well-known names calling the opposition, "Don't be a party to the crime," there is no single explanation from the opposition.
What the peoples of Northern and Eastern Syria and their legitimate forces will do against all this emerges in line with these realities. The Autonomous Administration declared a State of Emergency on July 6 against a possible attack. In the statement, the Autonomous Administration declared that all peoples were preparing and that they would stand against the attacks together. On the other hand, the SDF, the roof of the military forces, announced that they would step out of their legitimate defense position and respond with an active defense position against the attack. In the light of these statements, the truth emerges that this time the war will not be like Afrin, Serêkaniyê and Girê Spî, but will be tougher.
Considering the statements made by the leading politicians of Northern and Eastern Syria, especially in this period, the following results should not be ruled out.
* The SDF can return to the Turkish border lines from the 30-kilometer line from which it was withdrawn with the agreement of Russia and Turkey.
* The SDF can send the Syrian State Forces deployed on the 30-kilometer line and border to where they came from.
* The SDF may not limit the war to the region attacked by Turkey, but spread the war to the entire Syria and border line.
* The SDF can respond to Jarablus, Ezaz, Bab, Afrin, Serêkaniyê and Girê Spî, which Turkey entered before, with a liberation move.
It is clear that these results will be an opportunity for tens of thousands of ISIS members to escape from the hands of the SDF and that the result of this possibility will threaten the whole world.
MA / Nazim Dastan