Turkey is deepening its efforts in Syria day by day with searches for new bases, with the expectation that the Democratic Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (DAANES) will exit with minimal gains, and with plans to integrate the Democratic Syria Forces (SDF) into a provisional Damascus government army. To give depth to its fieldwork, Turkey is seeking to redefine its strained relations with Israel in the eyes of the United States. Following the United Nations (UN) General Assembly, President Tayyip Erdoğan was reportedly tasked with persuading Hamas on Gaza during the summit he held with Trump on 25 September. 

 

On 10 November, while Trump was meeting with interim Syrian State President Ahmad al-Shara, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan rushed to the White House and was included in meetings on Syria’s future. Observers interpret this flurry of meetings as Turkey’s effort to secure a share of the Syrian arena. 

 

DEEPENING PLANS

 

Instead of withdrawing from the area as required under the 10 March Agreement signed between the SDF and the Damascus interim government, Turkey is said to be prioritising the consolidation of its presence in Syria (Jarablus, Azaz, Bab, Afrin, Ras al-Ain/Serekaniye, Tel Abyad/Girê Spî). One of Turkey’s main objectives is reportedly the elimination of the DAANES. Ankara is said to intend to expand its “special warfare” concept across Syria from the coastal strip to the Euphrates. At the centre of the plan are breaking Russia’s influence, preventing a possible autonomous formation, and redesigning paramilitary groups to use them against the DAANES.

 

ON THE COAST AGAINST RUSSIA

 

It is reported that Turkey has launched an extensive operation recently focused on the Latakia coastal area and that National Intelligence Organisation (MIT) personnel have been directly assigned to the region. According to the plan; 

 

Intelligence Dominance and a Climate of Fear: MIT is said to be removing local elements within its “Emin Am” (Security) units in Latakia and replacing them with Turkish-speaking elements, likely drawn from Turkmen groups. With these new forces, the aim is allegedly to exert pressure on the local population and create a climate of fear through kidnappings, killings and arbitrary detentions, thereby coercing people into seeking refuge with Turkey.

 

Demographic Change: The plan reportedly calls for members of MIT-affiliated paramilitary groups to settle in the area with their families, intentionally altering the demographic structure. Events such as forest fires are alleged to have been instigated within this framework.

 

Balancing Russia and Preventing Autonomy: The strategic aim of this move is said to be to blunt Russia’s strong influence in the region and to prevent a potential Alawite autonomous formation. Similar to situations engineered among the Druze in Suwayda, the objective in the coastal strip is reportedly to remove the population’s potential to self-govern.

 

SEARCH FOR BASES

 

A military delegation from the Turkish Armed Forces (TSK) is reported to have conducted reconnaissance in Aleppo, Hama and Deir ez-Zor to establish new military bases. Some older bases have been vacated and replaced by more strategic, permanent positions. This activity is seen as a move against Russia’s military presence along the M5 highway, with the broader aim of creating a strategic line that would encircle Autonomous Administration areas from the south and west.

 

DIPLOMACY: EFFORTS TO LEGITIMISE HTS

 

It is reported that the German foreign minister’s meeting with interim government head Ahmad al-Shara took place at the request and direction of MIT. Despite the German minister’s warnings on human rights, minority protection and crimes committed against the SDF, Ahmad al-Shara reportedly attributed these crimes to “foreign elements linked to the Kurds,” echoing Turkey’s arguments.

 

US-IRAN TENSIONS

 

Another issue on the ground is US concern about members of the IRGC-affiliated Quds Force within Syrian government institutions. When the US urged the interim Damascus government to remove such figures, the response was reportedly, “If we remove them, the ministries will be empty,” highlighting the regime’s weakness. In this vacuum, Turkey is said to be offering to “mediate” to turn the situation to its advantage. Meanwhile, groups such as the Turkistani Party are reportedly preparing attacks against Alawites and Christians in Homs and Hama, deepening contradictions between HTS and other groups — a chaos MIT could exploit for new provocations.

 

KDP-ENKS ACTIVITY

 

It is reported that the KDP has launched a new organisational push in Damascus through the ENKS. Mesud Barzani is said to have instructed ENKS that “now is not the time for disagreement, it is time to organise in Damascus,” as the party seeks a share in the Damascus administration. Backed by the Ministry of Defence, this intelligence activity aims to weaken the Autonomous Administration project and to fragment the Kurdish people’s will in any future political settlement.

 

PLAN THROUGH TRIBES

 

Following the failed “tribal war” plan against the Druze in As-Suwayda, MIT and HTS are now reportedly seeking to incite tribes along the Euphrates against the Autonomous Administration. In Deir ez-Zor, tribal councils are said to be convening meetings to encourage young people to leave the QSD ranks. The objective appears to be sowing discord among communities to weaken the Autonomous Administration’s social base.

 

In conclusion, Turkey is said to be conducting a comprehensive offensive concept in Syria using military, political, demographic and intelligence tools. Observers note that this plan aims not only at military intervention but at dismantling the peoples’ autonomous democratic governance.

 

MA / Erdogan Altan